Social Security
How many People want to go to a SCHOOL that teaches
student how to make money,how to use their talents
and think business like?
I think finance education is important
you see to go a school you need MONEY first thing,fact or not to pay the fees
SO the reason for going to school
should be to teach you how to make
MORE MONEY.....
There fore learning HOW to make money ,how to
make companies,entities ,investment,how to own
businesses,how to make product you own,royalty,
invention etc etc
is important subject not introduced in any school....
=========================
There are different people with different interests
1.EMPLOYEE CLASS-people who work for others
hire and fire...ok in cases where for secure high paid
jobs which will no longer be possible in future..
2.BUSINESS CLASS- people who engage in an
activity and earn a reward.
3.INVESTOR CLASS --people who have capital and funds
and earn income
4.PROFESSIONAL CLASS --people who have
special knowledge,and no retirement age ...
today any combination must have INVESTOR CLASS...
PEOPLE need to decide which class they need to be in
and this should be taught in the SCHOOL....
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S.S. is Social security not Social risk
BOOMERJEFF said,
"Your equation leaves out the human creativity/innovation/invention/management element.
For example, Cell phone Co may have invested $1 million on R&D to develop the ability to take pictures. They may invest $2 million in a factory to make the new phones that take pics.
.....
So, the $3 milion invested in the picture phones could generate much more profit than $3 million invested in phone-only phones, or $3 million invested in improved pots and pans, or $3 million invested in improved lawn mowers. Thus, the market value - not your theoretical book value - of the picture cell phone stock will rise many times as much as the market value of stock in the phone-only cell company, or stock in the pots & pans company or stock in the lawn mower co.
===========
When the debate starts, I always encounter with arguments like above one. It used to be:
1. They use unique sample to cover all.
2. Businees belong to dividend category but they mix it with stock trading.
My Answer
1. A new technique will make big money, that's true. It used to be invested by V.C. (venture capital). When one such technique succeeded, there may be 9 others failed. V.C. may invested in 10 companys with one million each. One company succeeded and 9 others failed. The average return is still flat.
Or in stock market, 10 people invested, one made high return like you said, the others suffer a lost you don't mention at. The average return you avoid to talk is still low.
As a matter of fact, it's like the propaganda of gamble business. They say every week there is a millionare prize winner. That the critics neglected the lucky element(in your word, "creativity/innovation/invention/management element.)
Here we talk about average return. Not a lottery. And that average return of stock market for ordinary people is almost nothing consider to inflation. I have that fact in message "6. Average investor in stock market" in this forum.
2. The profit still came from potential loser.
In your sample. If the stock price went up 5 times to the original one and you sold all the stock, then to my equation: 12 million (profit gain by original investor)+ 3 million ( Capital gain of phone company)= 15 million (potential loss of new investors who bought the stock)
Remember the profit gain in stock market is always from the buyer. Because however a company successful the money paid to stock trading is always from the stock buyer (potential loser) not the company.
Then you may ask where is the value created by "human creativity/innovation/invention/management element" goes?
It reflects in dividend distribution. And it used to be a flatened one because such success is always be in consideration when the stock was issued. In another word, the profit was gained by inventors and VC capitalist. (VC capitalist must average the profit with other failed cases) Have you ever heard a company paying dividend equal to its stock price, or even 50% of it? So far as I know, the average dividend is close to the rate of interest bank paid to its customers.
Of course, I always talk about average not lottery or unique accidence. Social Security is a system to guarantee most people have a minimum income when they retired. Not to put them in a risk life when they get old.
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7. The point is they need fund to save stock market (6/20/05)
In my illustration equation in message 6: (based on fact that the return of average investor was 3.7%, and average return of S&P was 13.2% each year)
37 (average investors gain in 10 years) + 95 (special interest group gain in 10 years) + 100 (capital gain of S&P company) = 232 (price paid by potential loser after 10 years)
to maintain a high return rate in stock market, special interest group needs more and more fund. In that equation, it's the amount 232 paid by potential losers. Next year, to maintain a 13.2% grow up rate, they need 262 new fund from potential losers. So far it works well becasue they successfully guided the pension fund, then IRA, then 401(k) into the market. But once those who invested in stock market with their pension fund want to cash their portfolio who has that big money to take over the stock papers? They turn on to your social security.
2018 is the year when paid S.S. tax will be less than the benefit paid to retirees. That's 13 years away. 2042 is the insolvent year for S.S. That's 37 years away. Why Bush is so eager on this issue? Because the stock market will have problem in 2009. That's 4 years away. Bush's privatization plan is not to save Social Security, (on the contrary, it endangers S.S.. See message 5. Bush's privatization plan will endanger S.S. further (5/22/05)) It is to save the stock market. The sacrifice is young people's retirement fund.
Back to my equation, when potential loser paid 232 for a stock paper, the money has gone to the winners' profit gain and company's capital gain already. When potential loser wants to cash his stock paper, who has the money to take it over?
That's why Bush and his accessaries bang the drum to propaganda on "high return in stock market" (it's a gimmick, see message 6. Average investor in stock market) to lure people to invest their money into the stock market to take over the hot potato.
Bush's plan is opposed by majority people. But he tries to play with tricks. whatever the new plan he proposed, one thing is for sure: 1. He needs money(fund). 2. The money is from Social Security fund. 3. And that fund will be put into the stock market to save it from collapsing.
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402. Bank robbery in San Francisco (1) (4/25/06)
In 1998, there was a financial crisis in South-East Asia. After the currency collapsed in Thailand and Indonesia, the I.S. (International Speculator) turned to Hongkong.
In August 1998, there was a stock market battle between Hongkong government and I.S..
In option market, I.S. bought low future index of stock. Hongkong government tried to raise the stock market index. To sell down the index, the I.S. even borrowed the stock from other firms and rich celebrities for selling off. Hongkong government bought these stock in with its foreign currency reserve. At last, Hongkong government won. The Hansen index (stock index) stayed at 8000 level. A hedge fund company suffered a huge loss and would go bankruptcy.
I was interested at the news that I.S. borrowed the stock from the other people to sell down the market. These stocks now were in the hand of Hongkong government. (11% of the blue chips) The gvoernment said it would keep these stocks as reserve. So how could I.S. return the stock they owed to other firms? It had to buy back the stocks from the market. On the other hand, I.S. must earn enough money back to save its company from bankruptcy. If it couldn't sell down the market, the other way it could do was to buy it up. So I speculate there would be a bull market. Hongkong stock market generally follows the Wall street. So a booming Hongkong market meant there must be a booming US market first.
I have never traded US stock before August 1998. With above confidence, I bought 100 shares of Boeing and 100 shares of City bank in September. I bought them not based on economy or any other technique factor but on opinion that the stock market was manipulated by financial group. And the financial group was manipulated by intelligence. This was a rare time that they had to push up the market to save their firm.
The later development proved my opinion was very correct. From the end of 1998 to 2000, there was a booming stock market. Both Dow Jones and Nasdaq reached their historical high. It was so high that its collapse became a milestone. That was the break up of the dot.com bubble in 2000.
Though I correctly foresaw the booming stock market of 1999, it also brought disaster for me. The intelligence views the stock market as its cash register. They don't allow a target to make profit from it.
After I bought the stock in September, the persecution went crazy. In the end of that year, for a lot of time I had to leave my home to sleep at my parents' house in San Francisco.
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14. Stock market profit came from the buyers not from the company.
Fallacy 4. "Company did spend their profit in stock market. Some of them bought the stock of their own company."
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Answer. This is a typical problem how CEO of companies abusing their power. Yes, some companies did buy the stock of their own to boost the stock price. But remember the money they spent were the profit of company. It belongs to shareholders. The money should be distribute to shareholders as divident. But the CEO intercepted the profit to manipulate the stock market. They don't work for the interest of shareholders but for the interest of inside group.
So there is an important opinion you must know: that the profit gain from the stock market is not from the company but from the later buyers. (potential loser)
An individual company may gain a good profit. That profit won't play the role to raise the gain in stock trading. The company profit is paid to stock holders as divident. Whatever the media tell you the economy is good, the fact of current situation is: The average divident rate of stock market is 1.5%. You invest 10 dollars in stock, the average divident income is 15 cents per year.
Then how can you have a 11% annual gain in stock market trading? It's from the money of other buyers. When you bought "Google" at $100 a share and sold it at $300, keep in mind that it's not the "google" company paid you the $300 but another buyer paid it. So it's the other buyers' investment let you make money.
This is a point very important. Not the Company profit but the continueing coming investment push up the stock market.
To make it more easy to understand, the trading stock worth at $100,(or you can say it's 100 billion) next year new investment coming at $111, (or 111 billion) then there is a 11% growing up rate. Because government pushed the pension fund into the market these years, so you saw an average 11% gain each year. It only means more and more pension money became paper. Money was harvested by sellers. What left for later buyers are only stock papers, (they hope new buyers will take it over with even higher price).
What is the current stock market? A bunch of papers. The stock holders exchanged them with their pension fund. (with 10 years, 20years...even 40 years of their pension fund). If they want to cash these papers, who had that much money? That's why Bush desperately to push the S.S. fund to save the market from collapse.
If the Privatization succeed, it only delay the crisis from expoision but make the balloon bigger. The young generation will be the victim because Bush lured them to take over the hot potato(stock paper) with their retirement fund.
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12. Paper value (9/2/05)
Why did I say people who bought the stock are sleeping on a paper? Because if it is liqudated, most likely you will get little money back. And CEO of these big firms don't work for the interest of shareholders but for the interest of Inside Group.
Five years ago, when managers of pension fund held billions of Enron's stock, they never knew they were holding only a bunch of pieces of papers which worth nothing. Did Enron lost its value in one night or just in a short period? No. A lot of firms are run in same way. What about GM? It's bond was ranked as junk recently. What does that mean? It means GM is in same level like Enron had been. The debt it owes is much bigger than its asset. The long term bond GM issued is about 300 billions. Compare to Iraq war, its cost is only 68 billion a year. Yet, GM is still a foundamental stock of Dow Jones index. How many other companies are in the same level?
Since stock market is such a market full of balloon. Those expert who know it deeply avoid to get involve in it. Here is an article published recently.
"Greenspan invests cautiously
By Jeannines Aversa, AP,
Greenspan keeps all of his holdings in money-market accounts and Treasury securities, which are considered the world's safest investment, a financial disclosure form shows."
(Mercury News, 7/29/2005)
Further more. on 8/27/05, Mercury News reported:
"It can 'readily disappear' if economy stumbles
Rising house and stock prices have made many people feel more wealthy and have helped to support consumer spending.
Greenspan, however, said people shouldn't count on that paper wealth, which can evaporate if economic conditions deterriorate rapidly."
I have repeatedly said the stock is no other than a paper in this thread. Seven days ago, Greespan's comment proved my opinion.
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13. Fallacy (9/12/05)
Fallacy 1. "Politicians stole all the extra SS tax money and spent them in the general fund for their own purpose."
Answer: The surplus of S.S. tax are now in the form of "I.O.U." which is no difference to the national bond.
To the logic of fallacy, when people deposit their money in bank, he will rant: "The money is all gone. The bank spent it by lending it to the others. But what's the business with him how does bank spend the deposit? What people care is the bank will pay them back the deposit with interest.
In sameway, what's business with him when the Congress spend it in general fund? Only when they will pay it back with interest. Remember if they don't borrow from S.S.Trust fund, they still will borrow by issueing Treasury note.
Fallacy 2. "I like privatization because I can handle it by myself. I want have my own choice."
Answer: The original purpose to set up Social Security is to guarantee people will have a stable income when they retired. Privatization won't guarantee this. It put Social Security in a risk.
People pay insurance company. The payment is guaranteed to be used in retirement payment. Bush lured them to a casino, said that people may win more. The reality is people then will exchange their money with a paper its value may evaporate when economy turns downward.
It's not for a stable society but lead the society to an dangerous gamble.
Yes, there are many choice of gamble: Black Jack, slot machine.... but more you gamble more you will lose.
Fallacy 3. "Social Security will collapse".
Answer: It's an intimidation. A tactic Bush used to use all the time. He had cried, "sky is falling" 28 years ago, the sky didn't fall.
Re: 'For Bush, a Long Embrace of Social Security Plan
By RICHARD W. STEVENSON
Published: February 27, 2005
in the summer of 1978, in the heat of his unsuccessful race for a House seat from West Texas, G.W.Bush said Social Security "will be bust in 10 years unless there are some changes,"
http://www.nytimes.com/2005/02/27/politics/27social.html?pagewanted=1&ei=5094&en=0a958f02348dd46b&hp&ex=1109480400&partner=homepage
He scared us into an unnecessary war. He is now scaring us to give him the power to handle our retirement fund. But insolvency is 37 years away. (2042) If US could solve the same problem in 1978, so can they do in 2042. Bush has better to deal with the historical national deficit which he created. If he can't handle the war spending and disaster spending well, US economy will collapse much earlier than S.S. he intimidated.
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11. Squeeze every bit of your retirement fund to support a stock market balloon.
Read my message "9. How to blow a balloon bigger" you know There are two ways to keep stock price from falling. The two articles from Mercury News show how this government and the media they controlled are working hard to push every bit of money to the stock market to keep the balloon from exploding.
1. One way is try to find every bit of money available in 401(k).
Re: "Automatic enrollment in 401(k) plans is endorsed
Workers must choose not to contribute
By Jack Sirard, Sarcramento Bee
..... Studies show that up to 20 percent of employees who are eligible to join theri
comany's 401(k) plan fail to do so.
..... Automatic enrollment, which is a growing trend nationally, changes a worker's decision from having to choose to join a 401(k) to having to choose not to join. "
(Mercury News, 7/24/05)
Thus the 20% workers who haven't made up their mind are automatically being pushed into an investment pension fund.
2. The other way to keep the stock price from falling is to reduce the stock for selling.
Re: "Almost half of job-switchers cash out 401(k)s
By Kaja Whitehouse, Dow Jones
Almost half, or 45%, of all workers who left their employer last year opted to cash out their 401(k) savings, according to a new study. .....
Employers would often force distributions for accounts worth less than $5,000 because they found them too costly to maintain. .....
Under the new rules, employers are required to either maintain small balances - defined as anything between $1,000 and $5,000 - or automatically roll the money into an IRA when workers depart. This way, workers with small balances will only take their money in cash if they take the initiative to do so. "
(Mercury News, 7/26/05)
This is how they push workers to join 401(k) investment plan, and try their best to prevent workers from cashing their 401(k) portfolios, even if it's a small amount.
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9. How to blow a balloon bigger (7/29/05)
If the paper value of the whole stock in maket is 20 t (trillion), then there may be only 1 t stock is active in trading. The rest stock is inactive (sleeping stock). Because some owners hold it to control the company; some owners hold it as long term investment. (mostly the people hold it as retirement investment)
Only a little fund can change the whole value. When there is 1.1 trillion investment fund entering the market and caused a 10% increase on 1 t stock, the rest sleeping stock(19 t) felt their asset increased by 10% too. That's how a baloon is multiplied by 19 times.
So there are two ways to increase stock market value.
1. To increase the investment fund in the stock market. This is what government has done to push the pension fund, 401(k) fund into the stock market. And Bush is doing now to put S.S. fund to the market.
2. To reduce the stock for sell also can raise the stock price.
When the money supply is 1 t. But the supply of stock for selling increased to 2 t, then there will be a 50% drop of price.(1t fund/2t is 0.5) Original $1.00 share can only get $0.50. If the stock for selling reduced to 0.5 t. Then the price will double. $1.00 share can sell for $2.00. A 100% increase. (1t fund/0.5t is 2) Reduce the quantity of stock for selling is a more effective way to boost the price.
This is why Bush's plan allow the privatization fund heritable. Old people would have sold the pension stock because it's foolish not to spend it before their death. Now they will think, "if I have no necessity to sell it, whatever happen to me, my son will have it." The inactive stock will go on sleeping. There will be a significant quantity of stock avoid to be sold in the market.
While a small amount of investment fund (say, 1t) support a fantacy of a big treasure ballon (say, 20t), interest group hope more people sleep on the paper stock to go on with their dream. So it will make them easy to blow the balloon bigger and delay the crisis from exploding.
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10. "Sleep with the stock paper", better forever(8/9/05)
When I have learned the rare data about average investor's return (3.7%), I was surprised that how such a data could be leaked from a tight censorship net of Inside Group.They want people sleeping in the dream that stock market is a gold mine with high profit gain.
A lot of people thought because company having a good business, so stock could be sold at a higher price. That the profit of stock trading was from the wealth comapny created. It's wrong. The wealth company created were distributed by dividend. Even some CEO re-invest or buy back the stock, the money they spent is still a steal from the dividend that shareholders deserved. The reality is sellers profit (or loss) came from the money paid by buyers not from company.
If a company had a profit margin at 1.00/share, and stock price was $10.00, when it makes 1.20/share next year, should the stock price be raised to $12.00? Not neccessarily. When buyers is tight with money. It could be still $10.00 or even a loss, $9.00. It depends on the supply and demand - the stock for sale and new fund willing to invest.
The Nasdag collapsing in 2000 is such sample. When Inside Group thought it was time to harvest, they poured out the stock they held. The investment fund couldn't maintain the usual price, a collapse took place. Did high tech. business had trouble then. No, they still made same profit as usual. But when there was not enough fund going to the market to buy increased amount of stock for sale, the stock price dropped to the bottom too. Nasdaq index lost 2/3 from 5000 to 1700. Those who slept with stock paper with the dream of high profit gain lost their most. The loser is always average investor.
I re-read that "Break the buy-high, sell-low pattern". I found the point of article is: "And that's where some of the good news comes in. Investors slowed the rate of redemptions last year to a pace that would lengthen average stock-fund ownership to 4.2 years. (the 20 years average is 2.9 years) " It advised that if people could hold the stock longer, the return would be better. So in the end it wrote, "As a long-time practitioner of dollar cost averaging, I can note one other benefit: You don't have to make a lot of decisions and you don't second-guess yourself. So you sleep better."
The purpose of the article is clear. With the release of data, it wants you hold the stock not for trading. The longer the better. In last message "9. How to blow a balloon bigger" I've told of the best way to boost stock price is to reduce the quantity of stock for selling. It will make them easy to blow the balloon bigger and delay the crisis from exploding. That's why Inside group want you "don't make a lot of decisions and sleep" on that paper. Better forever.
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4. The reverse point
As I have said, a growing up stock market must be supported by increasing investment fund. A $100 market grew up 10% in first year with $110 investment.Next year, to support a $110 market growing another 10% up, you need $121 new investment fund. And $133 for the third year..... To blow a ballon bigger, you need more air.
That's what happened in past 40 years. It's a process of how babyboomers cast their retirement fund into the stock market. It's a process how babyboomers exchanged their treasure(retirement fund) with papers (stock shares). When I said potential losers hold a bunch of papers, I mean the stock paper may lose value any time. (Unlike the certificate of CD which banks guarantee to cash or Grand deed of a house that you have a house, no one has obligation to cash your stock certificate, the only interest(dividend) was often cancelled in the name of re-investment by company)
Now it goes to a reverse point. The first generation of babyboomers reach their retirement age, they will not put money in pension fund any more, instead they will cash the stock in their portfolio for their retirement spending. If the market was originally at 10% growing up step, ($100 stock with $110 new investment fund) now it will be a staggering market or a recess market. The new investment fund becomes 105,(due to less retirement fund) the stock for sale becomes $105 (more old people cash their portfolio), then the stock market stagerring with no growing up. Or a recess, $100 new investment fund with $110 selling stock. Market will fall at 10% rate. (depends on retirement rate)
The World War 2 ended in 1945. The first generation of babyboomers were born in 1946. If the legal retirement age was 63, 1946 + 63 = 2009, then starts from 2009, same problem face to Social Security will face to stock market. Less working people contribute to pension fund, more old people to cash portfolio. A long term growing up stock market will become a long term recess market. The fairy tale will break up.
That's why Bush set the date of his privitization of S.S. in 2008. To save the stock market from collapsing. And deliver the bubble at the cost of young people's retirement fund.
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5. Bush's privatization plan will endanger S.S. further (5/22/05)
(1) "In the year 2018, for the first time ever, Social Security will pay out more in benefits than the government collects in payroll taxes," Bush said.
So in 2018, it will be a break even year.
If the S.S. payroll tax is $100 in 2008, the actual benefits paid to old people are $90, then there will be $10 surplus fund go to save in current account of S.S. This trend will go on until 2018.
But when Bush's plan is carried out, about one third of S.S.tax will go to the privatization account instead of S.S.current account. The calculation is: 35/42 x 1/3 = 0.27. Here I suppose the working years of people are 42 years.(also the period they pay tax. If their work start from 20 years old to 62 when they retired.) the rate of people who enjoy privatization are 35. years. (20 years old to 55 years old which Bush said enjoying privatization)
So $27 would go to privatization instead of S.S.current account. There is only $73 left to pay retired people while they were promised $90. The $17 shortage will have to take from the S.S. saving portfolio. The break even year will be in 2008 instead of 2018.
Bush should say, "In the year 2008 when my privatization plan goes, for the first time ever, Social Security will pay out more in benefits than the government collects in payroll taxes,"
Bush's plan accelerates the collapse of Social Security and directly endanger the old people who depends on S.S. benefit.
(2) Administration fee. Estimated 2 trillion in ten years period. It will either come from S.S. tax or from an additional tax from all tax payers. One thing for sure is it won't come from the pocket of Bush and his group. Another thing for sure is it will go to the pocket of financial group.
Quote, "Economists opposed to Bush's plan say the 10-year, potential $2 trillion cost of shifting to individual investment accounts is reckless and would require such a huge increase in government borrowing that it could destabilize the nation's economy. " ("Social Security change pitched" Mercury News 12/17/04)
Quote, "Social Security spends 1 percent of its money on administration. But administrative costs for private insurance range between 12 and 14 percent, according to the American Council of Life Insurance. In Chile, which instituted a system of mandatory private savings accounts in the early 1980s, administrative costs exceed 20 percent. This is your money, going straight into the pockets of Wall Street. "
http://www.thepetitionsite.com/takeaction/504620720?z00m=20239
Before you gamble in Casino, you lose first with a fee about 15% to 20%.
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6. Average investor in stock market (6/2/05)
Everyday, in debate of Social Security privatization, I always encounter with the argument, "Historical, the stock market offered 10% returns over the long haul (40 years)."
Or "average S&P goes up 10.5% each year. In latest two years went up 50%."
It seems there is a strong reason to invest in stock market. 10% return each year, what a brilliant figure. Yet it's a gimmick.
The flaw for this theory is that high return from stock market doesn't mean high return to average investors. But Bush never talked about this. And seldom media talked about this too. One day I finally found a data about the return of average investors. And found why media and government avoid this topic, the most important topic. Read this:
Quote, "Over the past 20 years, the average investor in mutual funds that hold stocks earned almost nothing once inflation was taken into account, even though stocks enjoyed terrific gains.
These are among the results of the 12th annual study of investor behavior by Dalbar, a Boston financial-research firm.
The study found stock-fund investors had returns averaging just 3.7 percent a year from 1985 through 2004, while the Standard & Poor's 500 index returned 13.2 percent a year. Annual inflation averaged 3 percent, chewing up most of the investors' gains." ("Break the buy-high, sell-low pattern" S.J. Mercury News, 5/8/2005)
http://www.philly.com/mld/philly/business/columnists/jeff_brown/11311526.htm?template=contentModules/printstory.jsp
There did is high grow up of S & P index, there was also a low return for average investors that almost was nothing if considering inflation.
Average people don't care about the high index of S&P. They care about thier return. Where did the money go? It went to the firms which control the market.
To my equation, (suppose the stock is S&P index, oringinal price at $100, in 10 years period)
37 (average investors gain in 10 years) + 95 (special interest group gain in 10 years) + 100 (capital gain of S&P company) = 232 (price paid by potential loser after 10 years)
One thing I should remind you that this is the result of mutual fund. Though there was little gain, the average investors haven't lost its capital because the fund was managed by expert. What if there is a real "privatization", average investor does it individually?
Here is a story again seldom to be reported.
Re: This is a problem that is beginning to be recognized. Since 1964 Nebraska offered state employees the chance to manage their 401(k)-type plan. Extensive employee education and training seminars were given, and everyone expected outstanding investment returns. But when the state audited the program in 2000, the results were incredibly discouraging: employees were making bad investment after bad investment. So in 2003, Nebraska eliminated employee choice from its 401(k) plan.
From: NewCartesian
http://forums.washingtonpost.com/wpforums/messages?msg=2800.351
Hardly a gain (with expert) or a loss (invest by yourself even being trained), that's average investors' encounter in stock market.
The most important thing is this happened in a grow-up market. That more and more pension fund were guided into the stock market. Yet, average investors had such a poor result. What if the trend reversed? (When the fund lured to support stock market is exhausted like what I said in "4. The reverse point"?)
Of course, Bush will never tell you this. Otherwise, how can his group get fatter without your fund joining in?
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A myth about wealth
question, "I don't think your equation works very well at all.
It is like owning a house. If you do some landscaping and renovations, and keep up with repairs, your house will likely appreciate in value over time. This does not mean you have benefited at the expense of anyone else. Investing in stocks works the same way. The company reinvests most of its profits in expansion and improvements; if they do this wisely then the company will grow in value. It is not the zero sum game that you suggest it is."
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Answer: You still haven't told us how the wealth created in winners' gain. The sample you given is a misleading of company's activity with stock trading. A company of course must work hard to earn a profit so it can distribute dividend to investors. They plant, produce, or do a house repair as you said. It doesn't related to stock trading. The wealth company created was used to distribute dividend. When you said company reinvested its profit in business, that means company diverted the dividend investor deserved to re-investment. You know there had been a period that Microsoft holding the profit and hadn't distribute the dividends to the stock holders. That is typical story fits your "company grow in value". But it belongs to the category of dividend distribution. I have said the dividend is the same thing like interest paid by bank to its investors. There is totally nothing related to the profit gain in stock trading. If you want to know where the profit of winners came from, go to my eqation. It is from the losers and potential losers. Or you show me where it came from.
My equation: Profit( stock winners gain)+ Capital gain(Company issued stock) = Loss(losers) + Potential loss (One who hold the stock)
Or to satisfy you: Profit(stock winners gain) + Capital gain (Company issued stock) + Capital gain 2 (Company re-invest with money originally should be used as dividend) = Loss (losers) + Potential loss (One who hold the stock) + Loss (Investor loss of dividend)
That Capital gain (company re-investment) is always equal to Investors' loss of dividend. It should belong to the category of dividend. (I omitted it because it is similare to interest)
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8. The game is who will be the potential loser (7/19/05)
First of all. People should recognize the difference between average return of stock market and average return of stock investors?
The Dalbar research gave you the result: In latest 20 years, 1985 to 2004, (2005 not finished yet).
Average investor's yearly return: 3.7%. (ordinary people)
Average S&P 500 index yearly return: 13.2% (stock price gain)
Get clear the idea of "average investor" and what happened to the difference between 3.7% and 13.2%.
Nobody deny the high return of stock market, only it belongs to special interest group not ordinary people.
I emphysize the average investor's return: 3.7%. Because S.S. is about the interest for ordinary people - the average tax payer, not for the special interest group. And my equation tells where the money went.
37 (average investors gain in 10 years) + 95 (special interest group gain in 10 years) + 100 (capital gain of S&P company) = 232 (price paid by potential loser after 10 years)
This is how Bush and his S.S. war room show to people:
132 (total profit made in 10 years) + 100 (capital gain of S&P company) = 232 (price paid by potential loser after 10 years)
They mix average investor with special interest group.
And this is how ordinary people got in stock market in latest 20 years, almost nothing (in mutual fund) or a loss (401k in Nebraska). A rare data leaking from government censorship net.
Bush and his group only blow the trumpet on that 13.2 but leave the "3.7 and loss" alone.
One thing very important is this took place in a rising stock market. Investor should have a rich profit, yet the result is poor. Where the profit came from? Stock market won't create wealth. It came from potential loser. From 232 paid by new buyer.
In the chart of S&P 500 index, we can see there are two obvious expanding period. The index rose from about 200 to 500 in 15 years. (1980 to 1994) This is the time when pension fund and IRA introduced into the market. And index rose from about 500 to 1200 in 10 years (1995 to 2004). It reflects that how the investment fund baloons the price of stock market.
I made a rough metaphor to make it easy to understand: The original invetor had a stock worth $200 for 30 years, then government introduced a new buyer, Pension and IRA. Pension and IRA paid $500 in 15 years and had the stock price being $500 in 1994. To make market a prosperous one, government found another big buyer, 401(k). 401(k) is a rich man, in 10 years, he raised the market by $700 to $1200. 401(k) now has no extra money to raise the market. (401k paid $1200) G(government) promised it can double in 10 years. But who has that much money to double the price to $2400? G now is in a hurry, the only one he can find is S.S.. S.S. has that ability to boost the stock market, but the problem is 10 years later, when S.S. intends to sell the stock, who has that much money $4800 to take over the hot potato? After all there will be an end. That's how a potential flood developing into a tsunami.
Bush doesn't care. What he wants is at current he and his group can make money. He borrows to pay the bill. (He cut tax by issuing national bond, you people pay it later) He spends at your debt. When crisis break out, he is not a Presidnet any more. Or even he is not alive then. Young people will bear the loss.
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There is a difference between SOCIAL SECURITY
and NATIONAL SECURITY....
meaning ....when people talk about SOCIAL SECURITY
there is no money...
but when it come to NATIONAL SECURITY and Wars..
there is trillions of money to spend.....
very strange indeed...
CONCLUSION
the obj is i think is to MAKE social security bank rupt
MEANING stop believing there is " SOCIAL SECURITY"
and start preparing for own security...
====================================
As long as there are new ideas.....directions can change....
eg Suppose US Treasury prints dollar notes
and starts investing in all the Stock Exchanges in
the world....and earns high return...
eg Medical costs-----if you look at the US population
most people are getting old and grey....
either more young people come from outside and
maintain the economy or outsource medical cost
to low cost destination...meaning
if there is fixed cost in overheads...by outsourcing
the fixed cost function one converts fixed cost function
into variable cost funtion contract basis...
similarly if the cost of medical treatment in x dollars
in low cost areas it will be half.....
eg Next LAND ---US has a lot of undeveloped
land...meaning each place is far from another ...
so there is more scope for developing towns and cities...
and giving investors( who develop regions ) a stake....
eg Mutual Funds ---many people invest in Mutual funds
....but unless you know how the system works
you don't know how your money work...what cash
return mutual funds have actually given investors...
eg Private money lenders and credit rated borrowers
backed with assets security....
eg stock markets ----there are always unidentified
value ....new business ideas,new players,new regions
,new countries,etc maybe
even new trading systems etc...meaning ....course
of direction is determined by new ideas of the time....
online realtime systems changed things and made
it more transparent ...price,time and volumes and
other data display......
eg say a house costs $100000----how much cost
is
1.cost of interest
2.cost of land
3.cost of material
4.cost of labour
5.fixed cost
6.tax cost...
based on this if a person can make a house for
$50000 ......He becomes a developer earn 100% profit
==============================
Investor who take risk are the MOST important
people in any economy because ...there maybe a great idea
but you will always require an INVESTOR to INVEST
in the idea.......
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Prepare for ENERGY Security......
US dependance on OIL and GAS is a serious
THREAT to US NATIONAL SECURITY ....and
also affect Economy Policy and Foreign Policy.......
DEBATE......
IDEA!!!!!
BUILT An ADVANCED HI TECH RAIL SYSTEM
Linking all the cities and town.....and using
NUCLEAR FUEL...... like the ORIENANT EXPRESS
train .....
rail system can transport GOODs and PEOPLE and ANIMALS....
Trains can be designed for QUALITY
eg some compartments can provide more SPACE
than CARS
so many things ...
-games centre on trains
-speed
-medical units
-people can own compartments and rent them.
-meetings and gatherings
-etc etc ....
US intercontinental train express system.....
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3. The stock price depends on the amount of investment fund.
If monthly trade stock is 100 shares, ($1.00 each) the investment fund in that month is $110, then the share price will be 1.10 each, it's a 10% rising market. If there is only $90 fund go into the market, then the price will be $0.90 each. A falling of 10%.
More fund is needed to support a growing up market.
For decades, the index of US stock market went upwards. It created a fake phenominon that if you invest in long term, (e.g. 40 years) you got a good return. That's the justification someone like Bush used.
But if you know the above principle(a rising market depends on increasing investment fund) you must know that it was built up artificially. The US stock market growing up at public's pension fund. At first, Different pension fund push up the stock market. Then financial group created mutual fund in 1970s(?) which put your savings into the stock market. When it was not enough they invented "IRA" in 1980s which push another amount of retirement fund into the stock market. Further more, in 1990s, government allowed 401(k) to access the stock market. Wave after wave, Americans' retirement money were pushed into that gambling market. It became a big bubble.
But money was harvested by company and winners already. What public held are only a bunch of papers. When people want to cash their 40 years long savings, (they think they have a bunch of treasures, but that's only a paper value) Who has the ability to take over that big bubble? It needs a lot of new investment fund to support it.
That's why when government exhausted your money by "pension fund investment", "IRA", "401(k)" the last exit is your social security
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4. The reverse point
As I have said, a growing up stock market must be supported by increasing investment fund. A $100 market grew up 10% in first year with $110 investment.Next year, to support a $110 market growing another 10% up, you need $121 new investment fund. And $133 for the third year..... To blow a ballon bigger, you need more air.
That's what happened in past 40 years. It's a process of how babyboomers cast their retirement fund into the stock market. It's a process how babyboomers exchanged their treasure(retirement fund) with papers (stock shares). When I said potential losers hold a bunch of papers, I mean the stock paper may lose value any time. (Unlike the certificate of CD which banks guarantee to cash or Grand deed of a house that you have a house, no one has obligation to cash your stock certificate, the only interest(dividend) was often cancelled in the name of re-investment by company)
Now it goes to a reverse point. The first generation of babyboomers reach their retirement age, they will not put money in pension fund any more, instead they will cash the stock in their portfolio for their retirement spending. If the market was originally at 10% growing up step, ($100 stock with $110 new investment fund) now it will be a staggering market or a recess market. The new investment fund becomes 105,(due to less retirement fund) the stock for sale becomes $105 (more old people cash their portfolio), then the stock market stagerring with no growing up. Or a recess, $100 new investment fund with $110 selling stock. Market will fall at 10% rate. (depends on retirement rate)
The World War 2 ended in 1945. The first generation of babyboomers were born in 1946. If the legal retirement age was 63, 1946 + 63 = 2009, then starts from 2009, same problem face to Social Security will face to stock market. Less working people contribute to pension fund, more old people to cash portfolio. A long term growing up stock market will become a long term recess market. The fairy tale will break up.
That's why Bush set the date of his privitization of S.S. in 2008. To save the stock market from collapsing. And deliver the bubble at the cost of young people's retirement fund.
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Debate
STEPS to improve US economy
First ---this is GLOBAL world....information
age has made the world smaller
1.ALLOW THE US DOLLAR TO DEPRECIATE!!!!!!!!!!!!!
-why? ......today....due to the purchase power
of the middle class ......there is DEMAND..in the US
with the jobs of middle class going overseas
demand will be hit....
US DOMESTIC market is Self sufficient...meaning
US MADE goods can be produced and sold in the us...
and US domestic market can be SELF sufficient
SO WHAT is the Benefit of having a STRONG DOLLAR
WHO benefits from a Strong dollar currency.PEOPLE
who earn in dollars and spend in other currencies.
eg Say a 70 year old man ....retire with say
$500000 in us terms it is avg ....but if the old man
converts $500000 into another currency say x.
1$ =50x it means $500000 =50*500000
So from an AVG american he comes a well to do
people in ANOTHER COUNTRY due to exchange difference
Now being 70 years his earning potential is less
but his spending potential ( medical,food ,living exps
increases) SO it make more sense to RETIRE
in another country like THAILAND or ASIA where
the expenses will be LOW....oh dear.
BUT THIS measure will not take place because
of VESTED interests....most US business people
have their assets and wealth in dollars but there too
they could benefit....because as their overseas
business will give return in other currencies which
if allowed by more than the dollar..
BUT this measure is tricky....because most international
trade is US dolllar, more over US dolllar is pegged
with Chinese currency ....and US dollar is the dominate
currency in OIL trade and oil affect price of each and
everything.
One can change the form of money,physical,plastic
card,e money,BUT one tricky thing is MONEY
has to BE EXPRESSED, in some CURRENCY,
thus Currency rate becomes a TOOL just like
interest rate,inflation rate etc...
Just as every person has a NAME......the books of names.
Name has some cosmic energy...
====================================
SOCIAL security
Cut off retirement AGE....today in the world
people psychologically have FIXED the CUT off
AGE for people to retire....some 60 yrs some 65years
some 70 years.....etc
Morever......RESPECT for ELDERS is declinning
People feel once people reach a certain age
they have no USE.......
In my opinion........AGE should not be the REASON for
people to retire...As long as the people is able to work
he should be allowed to work..
There was one case of an active OLD man in the age
of 60yrs, ....who had to retire BECAUSE the LAW
said.....60 years mean CUt off age ....retire......
After retiring, the OLD man became MORE OLD.....
in other words.......
As long as a person can work ,he should be allowed
to work with no discrimination on the basis of age....
the old man may not be able to do the same work,but iam
sure there are position of work with can be reserved for
the elders ......this will also keep them healthy and active...
The PEOPLE who really need the social benefit
will thus be the real needy people.....who are
physically or sick etc.....
CONCLUSION : there has to be laws to do away with
CUT off retirement age and ensure no discrimination
on the basis of AGE factor.
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OBJECTIVE -information age ..people need to
wake up
the comming of the factors make an event.TIMING
an event can be a good event or a bad event.
If one does not want a bad event to take place ,then ensure
the factors do not come together.
Bad events called Nightmares....
What are people worst nightmares….
Some talk about SOCIAL SECURITY
Some talk of war and attacks
Some talk of Nature fury
Some talk of economic stock crash.
some talk end of world,God gets angry and destroys.
here too people can have a plan
etc types of major events .....
ENRON
what i think about enron issue
such a big co ,becoming bankrupt,so many employees losing their
LIFE savings and having nothing to fall back on....this require
some thinking
1.People need to have TOUGH Bankruptancy laws which can track and trace money and penalize the guilty......unfortunately
the new exit laws have become SOFTER .Meaning new co can form
,take money from public,employ employee and make them
contribute to employee stock options and then if not
MANAGED WELL...take the ESCAPE ROUTE OF BANKRUPTANCY....
Secondly,people life saving in form of employee stock options
may not be safe...one does not know whether the co will be
existing or what would be the stock price.Moreover
if all the baby boomers retire at the time there could
be a glut of stock for sale in the future.Stock price supply and demand management.
But every bad event can be moulded using tools.
1.GOVT LAWS is a tool....i feel govt should not interfer
in the market place unless it is necessary to prevent a bad
event which can harm people as whole.
2.Second tool is MARKET Tool ---based on information and knowledge.
Using these tools bad events can be prevented
i think SOFT bankruptancy laws is a dangerous loophole
to cheat public.
Bankruptancy and insolvency---interesting aspects
May times cheaters use this escape route
.All the money they took ...money cannot disappear
A person claim he is insolvent and then suddenly
his wife or brother or other member has become
wealthy....i think BANKRUPTANCY and INSOLVENCY
laws should TRACK and TRACE the money ...
Some people are so smart they LEAVE the country.
and go to favorite destinations like SWIZE ,CANADA
DUBAI,some parts of europe,New zealand....
do the authorities know that many people going
there are WANTED IN ECONOMIC AND CRIMINAL
cases sometimes.....even if they know they pretend
they don't know because .....these people carry
and bring using CHEATED MONEY to this countries
People leaving country taking other countries money.
ENRON
=====
SECONDLY i would to see that laws are passed where top management
of co ...for greator transparency on how top management
are rewarded ,commission on sales,on what basis,growth etc
eg BONUS if bonus is based on credit Sales ( future uncertain sales)
it is not a good situation and basis
i feel SALES IS INCOMPLETE unless MONEY IS REALISED.
unfortunately,as top executives pay link leading to BLOATING FIGURES
more bloating fig more big bonus.....this relationship is diasterous.
BONUS results is ACTUAL cashOUTflow for a co
while credit and future sales is ZERO CASHFLOW for co and
then the co get bankrupt leaving Employees,investors,and creditor
in BAD DEBTS...
Co’s Show us the CASH
Many US CO and moving towards bankruptancy....if nothing is done
in this regard...and it will leave many people POOR
ENRON executives were GREEDY PEOPLE...who kept making deals
without CHECKING CASHFLOW....apart from taking and giving bribes
very interesting indeed ….bribes to saddam or bribes in general
are bribes.A bribe is a bribe.
Some say if people don't give bribe,business cannot be done....
did it ever occure to you ....how powerful media
can be ....in bringing shame.
A bribe is always followed by Shame.
the ENRON FALL is DISGRACE of HUMAN GREED.It is a shock to
economic and financial Security….
CASH FLOW of a business is more important than balancesheet and profit
and loss.It shows...
if A BUSINESS cannot generate CASHFLOW
it has no right to exist and cheat other people....
LISTING CO
===========
Sometimes wonder how co are allowed to get listed and raise
public money when they have no BUSINESS CASHFLOW MODEL.
venture capitalist can take the risk ,but when a co is listed
it should be a GENUINE CO.
Maytime one hears media saying CO have NO proper OFFICE OR NO PROPER STAFF
in the first place getting listing and price go to such hights
before it catches the attention of the regulator.
Was the regulator not aware of this situation at the time of listing...why because
they take LISTING FEEs and allows bogus co to get listed.
How on earth CO which no proper office and staff and business
cashflow CAN GET PERMISSION TO LIST AND raise public money.
STOP THIS LOOPHOLE to avoid bad events in the future.
Public money needs to go into Genuine business which benefit human progress.
Also this bogus co ( no cash flow model)Create a wrong impression of get rich quick the market
Game is.
Still if people think there is a business let venture capitalist and others invest at their own risk.
Social security is As important is National security
in the sense a person with no money living in america
is as GOOD As being DEAD.
...
Who are the people who depend on Social security
the poorest of the poor...the old ...where can
a person in his 60's ,70's and 80's have SOURCE OF
INCOME..etc
Most of the poorest of the poor and the blacks
so it raises a fundamental question
DOES AMERICA care for the POOR side of america?
==================================
in this DEBATE ....i think every country should
have at LEAST ONE ,only one SECURE INVESTMENT Avenue
to EARN Secure income.....for retirement and old age.
just as every country keeps national defense missles
this INVESTMENT SCHEME is financial security missle.
.
TODAY what are the various investment options open.
if an person has to manage his own funds.there is
no safe secure PLACE to earn at least a small
source of income....
NEW INVESTMENT SCHEME ...should be designed
in such a way it is not misused.Eg a person depending
on WELFARE AND OTHER PEOPLE CHARITY and having
no source of income cannot keep producing babies
to any extent they want thinking money is growing
on the Social security tree.
Social Security is meant to ensure that human being
already born in this world...DO NOT SUFFER ..
hunger,shelter,occupation,income of needs ,not abused
etc....
moreover what future to children born poor have,
ultimately they may to caught robbing and put in
JAIL and there too they will LOSE their right to VOTE
...and use the first tool....making laws....
==================================
TO CONTROL BABY booming among the POOR
one needs WELFARE PROGRAMMES
1.WOMEN rights is essential in reducing poverty around
the world and thus reducing suffering among people.
Women need equal rights....be it inheritance or education
or work place....this will ensure WOMEN FINANACIAL
independence ..which is extremely crutial in taking
decision to have 2 children or 10 children
Usually POOR abused women have 10 children
the well to do educated have max 4 .
thus one can ensure the children born in the world
have a HAPPY future and not a suffering ,struggling
agenda.
2.Welfare programme should mould people and make
them useful contributor...be it sports,security,etc
=====================================
Now cover different types of Situations
Situation 1
============
Suppose there is an attack,nature or any ABNORMAL event ...panic trigger
makes the Stock market crash harmful for the economy...any panic
trigger factor that cause harmful reaction
is not good.....
Abnormal event require abnormal intervention.
to balance this ....there needs to be a support
system.
eg that day could be declared a holiday for the
stock market in other words,market should
remain closed and status quo level till the dust
settles panic gone and sense prevails......
Situation 2
============
If social security goes away and young people
have to handle their own finance....they need
to FIRST get financial education.
Also if their plan to invest their hard earned
retirment in STOCK markets they need
to know that......."whether the values are overpriced"
when social security no longer exists,people need not
go like blind ducks into an over valued stock market
.Instead .....when the market is totally crashed
that is the time to pick on GOOD business stocks
at throw away prices....
People who invest in Stock need to have a CUSHION
to fall back on....
Cushion includes eg this ONE new investment scheme
missile which every country need to have ..for
financial security...
Cushion also includes assets and other things ..
Mainly the stock market is just a place one is willing
to take a risk with spare money....something
one don't mind losing.....
People invest in stock market to get higher returns if one
Understand and play the game.One can also loss
All the money …it is risky but unless gambling which
Is totally chance ,people study Co etc.
Situation 3
===========
what is this new investment scheme.It is a
my imagination...every country should have
AT LEAST one SAFE INVESTMENT SCHEME that gives
a better return on investment.that has tax saving
etc
This scheme is meant not for profiteering ...but
a cushion for old age when people reach 60 ,70 and 80
i don't think there are many people living beyond 100yrs
there should be a ceiling limit max x$
Situation 4
============
Employee stock option -how much of people saving
is trapped in illiquid stock options and are
people FINANCIAL educated about all the RISK
stock options have....
Situation 5
============
Broaden the market ...reduce risk...allow new
seed genuine co's to be sow so that they can
grow..and provide an alternative to any panic trigger
to increase confidence in investing.
Allow different types of players ,long term insurance player who take
One various risks of the economy.
,people who have SUSTANINING POWER and not
flyby night for the day players for any bit of panic
can lead to a tumble.just as genuine business
so genuine investors make good market.
Measure to improve liquidity
Measure to expand market.Bigger co which are
over priced need to start other cos ,different ways
to give value
Situation 6 God get angry and destroy the world
============
in this case to balance the situation one need
a group of holy people to pray and make
sacrifices ...in case God gets angry..these people
can negotiate with God on behalf of mankind
and save the world from destruction.
Situation 7
============
Some people make different types of prophesies
so one just have to ensure the factor don't come together
eg on one cold day...something happens
if it is an extraordinary cold day then people need
to ensure no trigger creates war ,even if it means
CONTROL your thoughts , for the sake of peace.
Situation 8
=============
When there is uncertainty of the future, people
try all kind of patterns this is some guesswork
eg 1929 ie 1+9+2+9=21 ...now take 2+1=3
eg 2001 ie 2+1 =3
eg which is the next year to watch for?2010
Nightmare Situation 9.
======================
How to ensure the young muslim generation
can be integrated into Human Family.
It is a very strange thing to know in the Name
Of Islam young muslim kill themselves and
Other innocent people …Did it ever occur
To them that those people they are trying
To attack are INNOCENT….
And think of the consequences after the attack.
If muslim people think the world is ONLY for
Muslims…….we are aheading for
A new war ….called the Third war….
Look are the destruction and suffering that
Will arise because of “muslim thinking”
This require Women rights reform…
The energy of Venus….
Situation 10.Outsourcing of jobs
=================================
I think one should allow MORE foreign workers
on a VISA programme ...say 5 year of work and
return home back ticket.
reason .....DUE to the opposition of workers
coming into US.......now the direct result is
JOBs are going out ....
Frankly people should take a job only to boost
their cash...the main goal should be creating
your own assets so that people do not need jobs.
After many years of service ,you will get a
nice watch ,a bunch of flowers and goodbye smile.
What really remains is the financial assets created.
Now if people are allowed to work in Us at low wages
1.they will be paying visa fees- income for govt
2.they will be paying social security fund -income for
old people
3.they will be staying on rent-income for people letting
their homes
4.they will be buying in malls-income for business
5.they with their family will visit -good for
airlines and tourism.and tourism has a multiple effect
etc
Money is circulating
If jobs Go out .....which is happening ...
Foreign harworking say chinese workers can
work on infrastructure at slightly higher that
what they are paid in china....CHEAP cost
of infrastruture on a fixed year programme.
All Us cities and town can be linked by rail
rail used to transport good and person and REDUCE
dependance on FOREIGN OIL.travel the whole
of US in four days by rail...this will be good for
tourism.
Foreign worker can do low skilled jobs while
supervising can be others.
Foreign workers which have high skills can contribute
in new discoveries.
Situation 11
Find the missing explosives? Explosives used
to blast roads etc gone missing from ship....
I just can't understand HOW such Powerful substances
.chemicals etc which can be misused and land in the hand
of terrorist are carried SO CARELESSLY by SHIPS
If x amt leaves a port x amt should reach the next port.
LAWS need to be passed for stricker transfer of DANGEROUS SUNSTANCES AROUND THE WORLD WATER
.....this is a factor , BALI blasts ,suicide blast ,all
these blast use blasting material...from where is the source of such material....
Secondly....bugs ( tracking devices) placed in all
transhipments so that one know which country they are
taken too.
Secondly.....i get some sense......something fishy is
going on in the Indian Ocean,be it Arms being transported
or explosive material.....on needs strincter CONTROLS.
Hunt the explosives even if it means sending divers
or dolphins ...get the explosives before that reach wrong hands ,we hear of BLAST boom boom.
What kind of slack controls ships have these days.
Situation 12
Middle east.....Palestinian terrorists need to control
their thinking ,Israel need to control their cannon balls.
I have a suggestion......how about starting a SCHOOL
for YOUNG Palestinian & Israel Children age 2 to 10 years
the most important part of any human development.
During that time,children will begin to build trust and friendship
which will be difficult to break later.
Secondly i find a lot of children deliberately put by their
parents in war zones,also taken away to become suicide
bombs...Moreover having a palestinian children school
leave give Israel Human security from any intention to
wipe Israel off......because there are innocent palestinian
children in the school on the Israel side.
One needs teach them the right things when they are young.
Situation 13
Suicide bomber nightmare say a suicide bomber of
a rail system.
various factors
-most of the suicide bombers have muslim background
features,names ,indentity.
procedure
ALL people using the transit system....must have
an IDENTITY CARD apart from a ticket..
This identity card will track their fingerprint or mind print
or a lie detector voice check eg a question can be put
"Are you a part of any terrorist activity and if the lie
detector detects a lie,that person can be hold for further questioning.
This identity card will also provide data ....who are
the frequent travellers and must needed information like
how many such groups travelled together.
-NEXT FACTOR
Where terrorist able to get the explosives are found ...shops etc
-NEXT FACTOR
have any person travelled to a MADRASSa,or any country which allows
terror organisation to exist.
-NEXT FACTOR
has any person came in contact with any know
extreme group or person
-Next factor
any meeting place .....place of worship or tour destination
etc where groups of people were able to meet and
plan.
-Next keep Surveillance cameras at all important
travel points,rail ,bus,airport,port and road juctions,
car of hire etc
-Narrow the search using the indentity card data to
certain groups,shaddow their movements house to work
-Contact their families can ask questions like change in behaviour
,where their family members have gone on a long vacation.
NEXT FACTOR
before a plot , terrorists take pictures of the target or video of
target.
-Next factor
Identity transit data search engine
all muslim background people,mostly male,age
20-40years ....etc movement and trigger points to grade the likelihood
a person is a terrorist.
eg if any one has travelled abroad to a madrassa etc ...
IN other words....ensure no factors leads to an bad event
Situation 14 -Hijacking -what would i do if i were
a passenger in a plane hijacked.
=====================
Imagine a situation ....
- on an average how many passengers are there in an airplane
take some fig 50 nos
-How many people( hijackers ) are needed to hijack a Plane.
say there are 7nos.
-Now if EACH passenger fights back with a STRONGER MENTAL state
than the hijacker,the majority will be able to over come
ALL the hijackers.
-EXAMINE the mind of the hijacker..."what kind of message
is comming from hijacker mind....show no mercy....
In the worst situation......make sure the hijacker not
get aways without a fight.
So passengers before over whelming the hijackers need
to first prepare their mind ....
eg think you are TIGER.....you are no ordinary tiger
..meaning you are a tiger that is hungry and not eating
for 1 whole month....
Now here standing the Hijacker is a delicious piece of meat....
In other words if the state of mind of a hijacker is "CRAZY"
you need to get into "MAD MODE" and show the hijacker
how "MORE CRAZY" you can get.....it is game of fear....
fear paralysed people from taken action...so block all
thoughts that create fear.
Some passenger may say...how can i fight the hijacker.....well
at least you can MAKE a Scratch or a bite or etc...
Next examine the built of the hijacker...so a passenger with
bigger built need to support the attack on the hijacker and
with the same mental determination....
Now....suppose the hijackers demands are not met...he will
then try to create harm.....so the hijacker will Ask
for Passport to know the identity of passenger and pick
the jews ,Americans etc
So if you are a jew ,American carry two pass ports
one is the real,one is copy only to for your security.
Secondly travel kit...
All passenger need to Carry CHILLY POWDER .....
the EYES is the MOST important Sensor of the human body.Without
eyes working .....a person cannot defend ....
So if a hijacker is there,take a handful of chilly powder and
throw it in the eyes of the hijacker.then all passenger
need to MOVE Their fat ass from their seat and pounce on the
hijacker like a pack of tigers.
If a person want to attach a prey ,get the eyes.that will make
the hijacker 40% weak.
Now ,the door to pilot cabin should be sealed before take off
and unsealed only when the plane lands....Under so condition
during fight ,or even if passenger are being killed or even if their is fire,access allowed in the pilots cabin.
if the pilot should be able to see and give voice instruction from
the cabin...if for any reason ,the pilot senses something wrong
the first thing is to send an SOS and make an emergency landing.
Next
If you are jew or America....before travelling on an airline
find out how many Muslim young men age 20 -40 years are travelling
in the airline flight and whether they have passed the lie detector
test.
Still better...the airplane should have
a separate cabin with a sealed door.
Next
All muslim male young men age 20-40 years should be seated
in front at one place..........this will give time to other passengers
to prepare if they try to hijack the plane.
Next -FEAR
passenger fear the worst.the problem is by taking action
there is better chance of the worst not happening.
eg if on is going to die at least make sure ,the attacker gets
some injury marks ....
Next if a hijacker holds a gun....calculate appox how many bullets
are there in a gun.......
PASSENGER SIGNAL TO fight the hijacker like tigers
In every airflight ,there is usually an air commando
so if an air commando ...is able to give the lead and fight
the passengers...the other passenger must also join the fight ,because if the other passenger don't help the air commando...he might die and then passenger will be left to the mercy of the hijackers.
CONCLUSION :there are so many passenger well built...who could have
given the hijackers a fight.....but there was no UNITY and fear
prevent passengers to take action....
If you believe in your mind you can over come the hijacker...special
energy is created and you will be able to fight like angel michael
But if you allow any doubt or fear thought .....avoid the thought
of dying...
LASTLY ......it all depends on WHOSE MIND is more strong...
Situation 15 Nature Fury
==========================
Earth Quake Victims.......out in the cold shivering .Suffering human beings
...steps to reduce the suffering.
If it is just not humanly possible to survive the winter....
More over once the snow melts.....with the loose mud
there could be landsides .....one LAST Option if
other countries are willing to cooperate !!!!!which is a big Question
and depends on Compassion human being have for others.....in time
of need....
is it possible to SHIFT the PEOPLE themselves to another
place ....for just one winter season.
The northern hemisphere is experiencing WINTER COLD
but the southern Hemisphere is experiencing SUMMER ....
Now which countries lie in the southern hemisphere.....
Now ...permission will be needed to set up a "REFUGEE CAMPS for
suffering human beings"..
In the refugee camps....aid in form of food,clothing etc
till Spring
then as spring breaks....the people can be carryed and put
back in the mountains....
Situation 16 -Energy Security
==============================
Nuclear energy has vast potential is solving heating needs,
or source of electricity ,move the train system etc.....
More research is needed .....as gas and other sources
are depleting.......
Situation 17 -land of worlds religions.
=======================================
Now ....Israel took a painful decision to more Gaza ...
Gaza was obtained due to peace efforts and without war....
Now most Patestinians as i understand are thinking about
West Bank etc....Understand their mind...
what i think .....
STEP1
After Gaza was handed ...there appear to be chaos...people
were expecting development such as Gaza port etc.....instead
a bunch on black heads with guns are moving around....
i only hope the bandits do not use GAZA as launching pad
for violence,and war against Israel....this will defecting
PEACE efforts ......to get things peacefully and diplomaticly without
violence and bloodshed and suffering on both sides.
I also understand some Israel People.....one has to approach
the issue with sensitivity....some Israeli ..feel it is their
birth right..and the land ,but technically and as per international
laws...the land belongs to Palistinian...
Israel has a right to exist in the MIDDLE EAST i think part of middle east is the motherland of Israel .....Both Palestinian and Israeli
are both children on Abraham so Iran cannot say wipe Israel.
Now.....If some Israeli want to live in LAND which LEGALLY belongs
to Palestine.....they have to give up their Israeli citizenship
and apply for Palestinian citizenship and vice versa.Many people
have settled say for more than 10 years...need to be aborbed
in the system .....
Palestine can be a country which is secular...muslims,christian and
jewish palestines...
Next the CHILDREN EDUCATION programme
All children age 2 to 10 years christian ,jews and muslims
need to mingle and study and play togther and build trust
and friendship in childhood which will ensure people
live like one HUMAN FAMILY....
STEP2
Before the next step of West bank.Answer this question
WHO IS the leader of the Palestinian people...is it hamas
is it Abbas ,is it all the different kind of groups...
secondly...methods has to be peaceful ,diplomatic and
not suffering....
Chaos in Palestinian leadership is not good situation...
there has to be ONE AUTHORITY who can take decisions
and control the people.....
The Palestian leader should be able to Command respect
People should listen to him or her etc.
without this happening....
the next proposal for West Bank and how to accomodate
all the people will not be appropriate....to think ....
So step by step...the problem has to be solved with hope
Situation 18 -HOPE
==================
A blind lady was waiting to cross the road...say Mr A saw
the blind lady and offering to hold the hand and help the lady
cross the road...
then Mr A said to the blind lady....how to you manage
to travel....leave your home and work.....
The blind lady REPLIED 'I have FAITH that SOME human being
will hold my hand and help me "
If a Blind lady have SO much hope in the Goodness of human beings, how much more people
with eyes and hands and feet should have .....
Conclusion:there is good in every human being...if one has hope...
Situation 19 ---Taxes
======================
It is amazing at the different kinds of taxes pay.
eg income tax,excise,custom,fuel tax,service tax,wealth tax,
state tax,sales tax etc etc....
the impression created is taxes are imposed on the rich for
the poor....in reality WHO lands up paying max tax?it is the
MIDDLE CLASS and working people......their income and assets
are all taxed up....
The RICH are clever ...they don't have much income and assets
in their names....they OWN COMPANIES,ENTITIES,partnership firms,
TRUST ( private or charitable etc ) and all these co'w HOLD their Wealth and Income security ...Spreading the incidence of tax....
the more complex and confusing ...the better...
secondly many GOVT in poor and developing countries has a HABIT
of using their power to make laws to PASS LAWS with the OBJECTIVE
of MAKING EVERYONE POOR...Today.....if a countrie has an image
of only poor people, people with money will not be interested in
coming and developing such countries..
CAPITALISM provides INCENTIVE for people to take risk and get rich...
eg there was a case,where an enterprising person bought land
and built a structure borrowing money at very high interest rate
thinking that they would live the houses on rent and earn
rent in old age,then a SOCIALISATIC Party came into power
and passed a LAW ..all tenants are owner .....now these
tenants are more rich holding valuable assets while
the children of the entrepreneur have nothing.....
Socialist parties are anti capitalist people and with such people
on policy boards....a country will remain backwards...
Only the countries that dare to take risk will progress
not the onces that keep say maintain poverty...
to remove poverty..trade is needed,in other words people need
to LEARN how to fish instead of ....spoon feeding the poor
this will created a CLASS of poor people DEPENDANT on GOVT
funds to spoon feed and with more baby boomers,the class
will grow...instead people need to become entrepreneurs.
eg setting up export areas...setting up trade centres etc.
Poor breeds more poverty.eg if a poor family have more children
...there will be more poverty...
YES POVERTY and Suffering needs to be eliminated
the General impression is that when taxes for poor and welfare
programmes are imposed forcibly.....whether ACTUALLY the money
reaches the poor people.
eg say Mr A contributes 100% to taxes for poor, the general
impression is 80% mysteriously disappear in GOVT and only 20%
goes to the poor.
INSTEAD a better system would be for Mr A to contribute 100%
to NGO and Mother Theresa type of people who have genuinely
sacrificed their lives and at least one would know that
80% will go to the poor....
If we have simpler taxes with greater emphases to contributing for
charitable CAUSES....it is better policy
Also RICH Farmers don't PAY ANY tax...because
in some countries.....AGRICULTURAL INCOMCE
from Agricultural sector 60% of economy
is EXEMPT...
Who are these Rich Farmers ....policy makers
So no wonder they do not pass laws that make
their Agricultural income taxable....
the real POOR people in the agricultural sector
are the LANDLESS labour...so where IS the EQUITY?
Nobody talks about taxing agricultural income...because
if one talks too freely....they could be harassed.....
this is FREE Expression .....DEMOCKCRAZY!!!!!!!! HA HAah
Lastly.....there is nothing wrong for person who becomes rich due to his or his family efforts.there should be incentive to become rich and not remain poor and a burden to society.
Situation 20 -GAS energy POLITICS...
One has SEEN how Gas pipe politics works in the world.
the next controversial Gas pipe dangerous situation politics will be the IRAN gas pipe ....here IRAN
will be able to Play politics in an IMPORTANT
strategic location of the world.
Many Countries in the region are become Anti
capitalist and anti US policy...with the Iran connection
the countries linked will form a CRESENT shape
Coming events in the future...
this can be changed.....how PRESSURE potitics
1.Us if the still military strong ...technology,equipment.
2.there are many rival countries in the region
competing with each other....
Situation 20 -the Real story behind a picture.
========
All that glitters is not gold....unless one get
the answers to Why?how?when ? etc...only then the real
story is known.
A group of Young HARVARD students (future leaders of our world)
Had gone on an education tour....where they say a picture
"vast disparities rich and poor in one of the business cities
of a country,"UNFORTUNATELY.....the REAL STORY goes as follows.
MANY poor people leave their villages and their native places
where there have their own farm houses and land and come to
the city FOR JOBS or FOR BETTER INCOME paying jobs....MIGRATION
of to cities has no control....
When the people migrate....they OCCUPY ANY space they can find....
under the bridge,near the railway tracks,and bit of SPACE in corners
set up tents and tin huts ......UNAUTHORISED Encroachment of city
spaces....the most sad part is the NEXT generation born
to these people....resulting in A GROWING SLUM.....then to
support the family they convert these spaces into SHOP and provide
other services ....
the people born in the space....most of the timing the space
is too small to accommodate a GROWING family so most of the time
people are actually living on the roads ,some children engage
in child labour poor wages,or begging or selling some article,
or destitutes....
NOW many people get the impression the CITY IS POOR and rich do not
care.....
SUPPOSE NEW YORK city ALLOWED Americans from all the tiny towns
to come to NEW YORK and ILLEGALLY occupy the spaces, and corners....
and allow slums to grow,....NEW YORK CITY will have the largest
SLUMS of the world.....
This does not happen ....because AMERICA is a land of LAW and ORDER
There is property rights....people are not allowed to occupy
and encroach on land....
Unfortnately....in developing countries and cities....slums
are alowed and MIGRATION is allowed.....causing overcrowding
....and less sanition and poor living space conditions....
BECAUSE OF VOTES and also the REAL PROBLEM behing this REAL STORY
is that RURAL areas are neglected in terms of INfrastructure
facilities like electricity,water and industry which gives income
in the hand of the poor...
SO to see RICH people living among the poor does not mean the RICH
do not CARE for the poor.....they do care they do want to help
and they do give a lot of charity money....but the REAL
problem is migration and lack of opportunities in the rural areas...
and the sad thing is the next generations born in these Allowed
to grow slums.....because that slum or tiny space become their
home.
this problem is nothing to do with RICH people rather it is
a SYSTEM migration problem due to LACK of opportunities
in other regions.
Situation 21 -bird flu
========
Turkey flu /// why was there a delay in taking action ,examine the lapses and learn from the situation...
why aren't TURKISH people Educated about the deadly
BIRD FLU disease..........many don't know what
bird flu is.....Turkey is a kind of bird....now when
a country is named Turkey,people needs to know about
Bird flu .
the cost of pandemic and on economy is
more than the COST of Chickens....livelihood of people.
in other words, infected chicken need to either
be given chicken vaccines or buried....
Infected people kept in seperate place and given
treatment.
People in infected region need to avoid over crowded
areas.
Infected regions.....sterilized.
SITUATION 22 -IRAN & NUCLEAR ISSUE.....
seperate topic created.....
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This is an absolutely excellent piece on the current scam of the Social Security alleged reform. I have never seen such a thorough analysis nor complete compilation of significant information.
The $4.7 Trillion Pyramid
Folks who are interested in Social Security as an issue and appreciate irony may want to also check out Josh Marshall's Talking Points Memo - he's been having some fun recently with the Rep. Cunningham (R - San Diego, California) scandal - but usually the site is heavily into the topic of (what Mr. Marshall refers to as) the Social Security Bamboozlement.